Financial cyclones

• Pierre-Noël GIRAUD
  Economics professor, École des mines de Paris, Author of le commerce des promesses, petit traité sur la finance moderne (Pub. Le Seuil)
  
• Alain BOKOBZA
  In charge of Strategy, Financial Analysis Division, Société Générale
  
• Christian de BOISSIEU
  Economics Professor Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne University
  

Summary

Modern finance, like meteorology, has devised scientific methods of forecasting and for taking subsequent courses of action. It claims to be able to predict future markets from past variations in Stock Exchange prices. From that moment onwards, financial cyclones would not be any more unpredictable for market analysts than are gusts of wind for meteorologists. Do financial 'weather forecasts' exist ? What are the data which the analysts use ? Are these data really "fundamental" ? Such questions are the basis for discussion. Pierre-Noël Giraud maintains that financial crises are unpredictable and inevitable. Christian de Boissieu asks that if we are incapable of predicting the storm, can we not at least feel it coming ? Finally, the analyst Alain Bokobza defends the work of those in the field and appeals for us to venture beyond simple weather forecasts and instead refer closely to satellite maps and analyses which accompany them.

Summary translated from French by Rachel MARLIN.

• The entire article was written by Corentin CURCHOD and translated by Rachel MARLIN.

To obtain this article, you can :

• download it for free in French (PDF help) or contact ecopar@paris.ensmp.fr (Reference IN081001).
• download it for free in English (PDF help) or contact ecopar@paris.ensmp.fr (Reference IN081001-ENG).

The entire article appears in French in the Journal de l'École de Paris du management N° 35.