Finding one's way in uncertain situations

For a long time, during the heyday of Operational Research, it was thought that management science was able to control uncertainties and the vagaries which companies and organisations face. Even though some uncertainties are considerable, but can eventually be reduced to probabilities, other uncertainties, which are not so large, do not work like this. Unfortunately there are many more instances of the latter than the former. Should one then dispense with forecasting models ? Should one agree to live life in a foolhardy way ? Surely not, and the hypothesis which underlies this discussion is that one can always approach this very uncertain world with the minimum of method, as our speakers demonstrate.